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Here's the best time to buy a new vehicle !

12K views 34 replies 15 participants last post by  FTSS  
#1 ·
While browsing through the Cadillac forum as well as other blogs I've noticed questions and comments as to when is the best time to buy a new vehicle. In this regard I will provide below some of my subject matter expertise with regard to buying a new vehicle, whether from the outgoing model year or from the new model year. My input is not applicable just to the Cadillac nameplate but also applies to any vehicles from the big three North American auto manufacturers. I am not too familiar with the marketing and sales of offshore nameplates so my narrative does not apply to that segment although I would think that some modified form of my suggested negotiating strategy would benefit you.

So, when is the best time to buy a new vehicle? Let's start with the purchase of the outgoing model year. The best time, of course, is during September when dealerships have to make room for the arrival of new model year vehicles. This is when manufacturers and dealers combine to offer rebates, discounts and other incentives to attract your attention and bring you into their dealership. They may even send out personal invitations to visit their dealership. When looking for a new vehicle during Sept, attempt to go there during the last 3 days of the month, the later the better. Here's why you should delay to month end. Typically car manufacturer's set monthly and/or quarterly quotas for the dealerships to sell a given number of vehicles (including SUV's and trucks).Let's say that a large volume dealership is given a quota to sell 90 vehicles during the month and if the dealership reaches or beats that quota the manufacturer will rebate to the dealer say $400.00 for each vehicle they sold. So, if you arrive at the dealership on the second last business day of the month, they may have already sold 87 vehicles and are anxious to sell 3 more before month end in order that they may receive the $400 dollar rebate which would amount to $36,000.00 ( 90 vehicles X $400 ). In this situation the dealership is very receptive to any and all offers as this means a big rebate if they reach their quota. Thus, you can make a low offer, say 30% below MSRP. Of course they will not accept that offer but will make a counter-offer. You may then counter back with another offer somewhere in between, but don't be too generous. If they don't accept your second offer, tell them you're not satisfied and walk out the door. I can almost guarantee you that they will phone you in a day or two and want to continue negotiating as they are desperate to reach their quota. Now you have the upper hand and can increase your offer price again, but don't be too generous, and now it's their turn to react. In most cases you can end up with a very reasonable price and they will ask you for a credit card deposit over the phone in order the seal the agreement. You will then have to go the dealership for the execution of the necessary documents and payment of the balance owing. At times a dealership may even sell you the vehicle at or below cost in order that they can get that big rebate at month-end. (In reality if a dealership sells you a vehicle at or below cost, they still, in fact, may make a profit of between 2 and 3 percent but that is another subject which I won't deal with here)

The same situation may play-out with a specific nameplate. Perhaps the manufacturer may set the dealership a quota to sell 20 Buicks during the month. If the dealership reaches or surpasses that quantity, they may be rebated $500.00 for each Buick sold. Of course you, the buyer, are not aware of what type of quota a dealership may have but rest assured they have one.

Here are a few details that I have assumed or are further to what I have provided above:
- I assumed you already have a car in mind, have test-driven it and are prepared to buy.
- Never show extreme excitement or urgency to buy because you become vulnerable and the salesperson has the advantage
- You have financing in place or can get it in a few hours.
- Although new model year vehicles are introduced throughout the year, Sept is still the best month to start shopping for vehicles from the outgoing model year.
- If the last day of the month ends during a weekend, the dealerships' month is extended into Monday of the following month.
- Manufacturers/dealerships have promotions to attract customers and clear out inventory.
- Outgoing model years get cheaper as each month passes but the selection also lessens.
- The rebate figures of $400 and $500 I provided may be more or less depending on the nature of the quota and/or the specific vehicle nameplate for which there is a quota.
- The dealership, of course, will not reveal to you what their quota number is.
- When negotiating the price, also think of dealership extras, ie mud flaps, floor mats, map update to navigation system, a tankful of gas, etc that can be thrown in without inflating the price.

The absolute best time to buy either an outgoing model year vehicle or current model year is the day of New Year's Eve. Why is that? Well, it is both month end and year end. As well, most of the dealership staff are thinking about New Year's Eve partying and are anxious to get out of the building. So if you arrive there at 2:00 o'clock, they may be receptive to close a deal quickly so that they have another sale in their pocket. During this period negotiations may progress rapidly and you will be the beneficiary. Another good time to shop for a vehicle is between Christmas and New Year's when business is generally slow at the dealerships.

Insofar as current model vehicles are concerned, manufacturers/dealerships are not as generous with rebates/discounts, but you should still submit a low offer on a vehicle you may like and remember, MONTH-END. Don't make an offer of 30% below MSRP on a current model year vehicle as you will not be taken seriously. As the months pass by, the current model vehicles become discounted through various manufacturer and dealership promotions and then they become outgoing models as the next model year arrives and so the cycle continues.

The above is just a brief synopsis of how vehicles sales are conducted and I welcome anyone to add to my narrative in order that others will read and benefit from our collective knowledge.
 
#2 ·
#3 ·
- If the last day of the month ends during a weekend, the dealerships' month is extended into Monday of the following month.

The absolute best time to buy either an outgoing model year vehicle or current model year is the day of New Year's Eve.
I can attest to this almost. I bought the wife's 2015 SRX on Sat Jan 2, 2016 for $34K. MSRP was $48K+. Just happened to be only one of three the 2015's the dealer had left and was the exact color (most important feature to her) that she wanted. There were numerous incentives including a huge dealer cash off. I was told the sale counted as a 2015 sale for the dealer because of the long weekend.
 
#4 ·
frzrwolf21
This is a vehicle I am looking at. I was initially looking at some used 2015s but I am in no rush and because the 2016 have android auto I think it would be best to get a deal on those.. And they also have a new 3.6l engine and transmission. What is your advice on slightly used vehicles, does your 30% rule apply?


Since this is an outgoing model but considered used, you can not use the 30% rule as the dealership has already made some discount for depreciation and mileage. I would offer them about 18% below asking price and hope to be able to get it at about 10 - 12% below asking. When negotiating, come down in increments of about 1 - 2 %. At the lower end of 10/12% it would still be a reasonable price for a car that is almost new. If they wouldn't consider your offer, walk away and wait for the phone to ring in a day or two. If by chance they are able to offer the full warranty and maintenance of 4 & 6 years, that's worth a few bucks to you. Tell them, which they already know, that there are other new and slightly used 2016's for sale which you are prepared to consider. it's your money, don't be intimidated or feel pressured by sales personnel.
 
#7 ·
I am not an auto technician and unfortunately am not familiar with the new 3.6 other than what you and I may have read in a blog somewhere. Neither am I familiar with installing the updated CUE but I have the 2014 CUE and frankly I'm satisfied with it. Perhaps that's because I haven't tried the upgraded CUE's on the 15's and 16's. As each new model year is introduced I'm sure that CUE will have more and improved functionality so the CUE issue is like a dog chasing its tail. Moreover, as CUE becomes enhanced with more functionality, it will become more of a distraction and become analogous with driving and texting.

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Hummer5,
Did you learn all that from experience, reading a book and/or work in auto sales?

It's good to price at multiple dealers, because we don't know who needs the sale to meet a quota. They could be over quota or
so far below, that end of month strategy doesn't help.

I have noticed that leasing rates on the out going model are better to a lot better than the new model, until the out going model stops leasing.

Do you think working with a rookie salesperson, who's happy to sell a car for minimum commission, or the superstar salesperson, who
sells way more cars than anyone at that dealership, provides best odds of getting the best price? I have noticed at one dealership, that I
can't get a good price from the superstar. My thought is that he has so many repeat Cadillac customers, that pay whatever he quotes, that
he expects big commissions on every sale and doesn't want to spend the time dealing with a small commission sale.
Does this make sense? A rookie may not give much helpful advice, but they won't fight their Mgr over a low price.
Yes, I learned from experience but not in auto sales. Many years ago I became involved in a senior capacity with auto purchases for an international company and with the aid of a consultant unravelled the mystery in auto pricing. I read no book on this subject but probably could write one if I was so inclined. Even after all that I wrote in my first post, there are many other influencing factors that impact auto pricing.

Yes, I agree with you that it's good to price at multiple dealers however it's difficult to find an identical vehicle at another dealer if you already prefer a particular vehicle at one of the dealers you've already visited. Moreover, in the case of luxury vehicles such as caddies, it even becomes more difficult to find an exact comparable as there are fewer of them on the market. This is especially true with the higher trim levels.

With your comment regarding leasing rates, you are entirely correct and the lower leasing rate exists primarily to get rid of the outgoing model year. However, be forewarned that there are also pricing strategies in leasing which at first may appear attractive are not really that beneficial to the lessee even if the monthly lease rate is low.

Insofar as to whether a rookie or seasoned salesperson is better to deal with, I have no experience in that regard but will offer you my opinion. The superstar will appear to provide you a better price because he is well trained, confident, has answers to all your questions and as stated by you has a loyal following of repeat customers. Thus he shines in comparison to the rookie and therefore impresses the customer. The Sales Manager signs off on all sales so the matter of the commission is kept in relative equilibrium between both types of sales people.
 
#6 ·
Hummer5,
Did you learn all that from experience, reading a book and/or work in auto sales?

It's good to price at multiple dealers, because we don't know who needs the sale to meet a quota. They could be over quota or
so far below, that end of month strategy doesn't help.

I have noticed that leasing rates on the out going model are better to a lot better than the new model, until the out going model stops leasing.

Do you think working with a rookie salesperson, who's happy to sell a car for minimum commission, or the superstar salesperson, who
sells way more cars than anyone at that dealership, provides best odds of getting the best price? I have noticed at one dealership, that I
can't get a good price from the superstar. My thought is that he has so many repeat Cadillac customers, that pay whatever he quotes, that
he expects big commissions on every sale and doesn't want to spend the time dealing with a small commission sale.
Does this make sense? A rookie may not give much helpful advice, but they won't fight their Mgr over a low price.
 
#8 ·
I believe this end-of-month phenomenon holds true with used cars (at new car dealerships) as well. I just purchased a certified pre-owned 2013 CTS the last weekend of September and the sales manager stated he was extremely motivated to negotiate provided I was "burning gas" before month end. He claimed that they were way below their numbers for the month. My car had been in the lot just over 60 days and they had at least 6 similar 2013s in stock. Happy to have it in my garage now
 
#11 ·
I would go in with an offer of $48K but don't expect to get it at that price as it is still early in the outgoing model year despite the fact the car has been in the dealer's inventory for 270 days. If you could get it for $52 or 53K I think you would be getting an excellent price. When negotiating with counter offers, increase you offers in small increments of $1,000 to $1500. If you could wait to month end you possibly could be in a better negotiating position but then there's the risk that someone else may buy the car. Don't appear too enthusiastic or show urgency to buy the car as the sales reps are trained to recognize people who are willing to part with their money. After negotiation if you don't like their last offer, walk away and say you'll get back to them in a day. If they don't call you first, you can call them and offer another $1k and see if they go for it. You have to balance patience with risk and that may be stressful if this is indeed the car you want.
 
#15 ·
On mine, the MSRP was $67,400. GM supplier price (through the Costco promo) was $63,079. GM rebates were $2,000 for current lessees, plus $2,000 for financing. Plus the $700 Costco cash card. That was last year. This year looks even better with $1500 loyalty plus $3000 cash and 0% for 60 months if you finance. That's on a 2016 though. I don't see any offers on a 2017.
 
#16 ·
Maybe I should write that book I alluded to in response to someone upthread. In addition to the various discounts that some of you have enjoyed or are aware of, there are other credits that dealers may often be the beneficiaries of from the manufacturer but which are not disclosed to the public and are not intended to be disclosed. It's all part of the complexity in vehicle pricing. These credits have the effect of reducing the net cost of the vehicle to the dealer. In fact, most sales people in the showroom themselves are not aware of these credits. I had to use some extreme memory recall to retrieve the terminology of these unspoken/unwritten dealer credits but here they are. Hopefully I got them all but then again vehicle manufacturers are always renaming former terminology but the net effect is the same - dealers have hidden profits. These credits are in addition to rebates that dealers may receive for reaching sales quotas.

- Holdback
- Transfer Balance
- Wholesale Credits
- Wholesale Reserve
- Floor Planning Assistance
- Supplemental Floor Planning Assistance
- Floor Plan Allowance
- Advertising Credits

Dealer sales such as "1$ over invoice price" or "employee pricing" are a gold mine for dealerships even though the customer thinks they are getting a great deal because the dealer will even show them the invoice. HOWEVER, that invoice is not the dealers' net cost.

So, to all vehicle buyers I say spend your money wisely. Don't buy the first vehicle you see and test drive. Don't buy a vehicle on the same day you first visit the dealership as you may be in love with the vehicle and you are in the dealership showroom which equates to taking candy from a baby. Don't be afraid to negotiate, after all it is your money and the only thing the dealer can say is no to your offer. Tell the sales rep that you will be looking elsewhere for an attractive deal. But wait a day or two and you will get a phone call at home to resume negotiations. Try to time your purchase near month end. Don't appear overly enthusiastic or eager to buy a vehicle you like.
 
#17 ·
Yea hummer5 i hope you do write a book, I surely will purchase it. I honestly am trying to hold out until next year this time to buy a 16 premium or performance! But I am always looking at various CTSs. I will probably lean more toward a CPO or try a used one and see if I can negotiate a bumper to bumper 100k warranty lol. I know this is kinda off subject and I probably will start a new thread but when do you think this 3rd generation of cts will be replaced?
 
#18 ·
Around Sept seems to be the best time for end of year rebates and good financing. Of course you have lost a year depreciation, unless you
keep the car for a long time. For current model year, Nov + Dec are very good, especially if you have Costco. Without Costco, you
can probably negotiate the supplier price, if the dealer wants the sale, like just before the end of the year. Last year Cadillac came out
with the $2,000 loyalty in Dec as part of their "Seasons best deal".

2017 is the 4th year for 3rd Gen CTS. Odds are CTS will stay the same through 2018. Cadillac is working on a lot of new models and
some SUVs probably are higher priority than CTS. 2017 is the 5th year for ATS, so it's CT3/CT4 replacement might come first.
Cadillac is very secretive about new models and the exact year they arrive.
 
#24 ·
Hi Jimmie. Yes, I can understand you getting a better deal than through my suggested negotiating strategy, however, my original post was over a year ago and dealt with the outgoing model year whereas yours is nearly two model years old regardless of when it was built. I applaud you for being able to find this deal. Others readers can learn from your experience if negotiating on a new or near new vehicle that is two model years old. Happy trails.
 
#25 ·
this is at best OK advice, and some of tips still hold true, such as timing sales at month end/year end...but there are big holes in this advice, and some of it is outmoded....such as these tactics basically may work if the car is under your nose, right there on hand at the dealership, dealer trades break this advice and of course if the car wanted doesn't exist and needs to be ordered also breaks this advice.

advertising: we've all seen those holiday ads that end with "see these offers at your local (insert brand here) dealer" and all the local dealers are listed...in one sense OP is right there is a little piece of money taken from every car to fund the ads, but OP is wrong in thinking you can ask for it in a negotiation, because that money is pooled into a district advertising group (typically the dealers listed at the end of the ad) and the dealers have no control of those funds other than to come together for meetings to steer the message and timing of the ads, or leave the group....which leads to the next point, not every dealer is involved in the local advertising groups and have no ad carve outs in their vehicle pricing, these are typically rural dealers....an example of this is palm springs and the surrounding desert areas are in the Los Angeles advertising district and the outlier dealers bow out because they are too far from the L.A. TV stations those ads will play on

then there's choice...there is an inverse relationship to options availability and factory offers...factory offers start low and go up throughout the year, and anything your heart desires can be had at the beginning of a product run and dwindle as the year progresses, leaving you with the least desirable products at the end....so, if you wanted a Crimson Red Tintcoat truck, you can have one if you buy early, if you buy late you can get a deal on a white one (GMC ran out of paint and stopped production of the red mid 2017 MY...the year before this happened with Iridium)

the percentages recommended for negotiations....these recommendations are just too big and dealers will just stop working with you, if not laugh when you hit them with a 30% discount on cars that might have a net margin of half to a third of that.....a main reason is since the bankruptcy margins have slimmed quite a bit, and some brands no longer have holdbacks

OP needs an info update with some current research before writing that book....this is no knock, i applaud OP for sharing, i just would hate for outdated info causing a bad experience for someone here
 
#27 ·
Interesting thread. Lots of good info. I always bought the car I wanted. Probably not the best deal but the best deal for me.

The first car I bought was in my early 20’s. Ordered car, loaded. Cadillac of course. I didn't have all the funds when the car was ordered. Unlikely I would six weeks later. It worked out. I was young and crazy then. Now just crazy :)
 
#30 ·
I see some good deals on 2017s, but incentives looked better in Sept.

I have been tracking lease payments on a Lux ATS + Lux CTS, using Cadillac's build and price.
The 2017s are still leasing in Oct, but the payment went up $25.

What is shocking is that the same ATS Luxury as a 2018, went up $39 from Aug + Sept and is $57 higher per month than
a 2017. If you plan to lease or buy a 2018, I suggest waiting until Nov. Nov+Dec of 2016 had the lowest lease payments for the
same ATS.