I know this is going to sound ridiculous, but I am looking into getting into GM stock (and Ford?). I made a little money on a half dozen stocks right around 2000 and haven't done much since. I have always been interested in the state of the American auto industry (Ford & Chrysler also), hoping for a rebound against the stinkin asian car industry. Please tell me if I have inflated hopes (ideas), but it seems to me that they, GM especially, are at a low and there are two ways to go: up or out. Obviously it would be taking a gamble, but are these new full size SUVs (which are supposed to be the best full size SUVs ever) going to help GM? The new hybrid Tahoe is reported to get 22-23 mpg and still tow 6000 lbs., sounds like a winner. Cadillac is on the upswing, Saturns' future looks good with the Sky and Aura and a hybrid Vue, and it seems that the other divisions have some winners too, is it enough to get the company going? Please share your thoughts.

Subscribe to the Wall St Journal like I do. The members here will have a gut feeling but the suits in the journal will give you a better feel for the future market.
You can view company profiles, financials, estimates and ratings etc.

GM stock gained 8% the other day. Buy, buy, buy. The nature of the game is buy low and sell high. This is the perfect time.

Dang! I wish I could post the performance charts for GM from Wall St.
It shows a continuous drop in stock value. It is not a good buy!

If you had bought last week you would have picked up a couple bucks per share providing you sold it yesterday. It's a roller coaster. How many people have the smarts to benefit from day-to-day fluctuations?

We wouldn't be here, that's for sure.

Yea, yea, yea, fluctuations. I don't care about that. There is no way the US Government is going to let GM sink. Look at the Chrysler deal. I don't need to read the WSJ to know reality. Buy low and hold. Even if it's a loser there is no Capital Gains Tax. Now tell me I'm wrong.

No argument there, but what is low? It's at $21.65 now. If you bought at that price and it continues to drop, how long do you think you will have to hold on to break even? How long to make a profit?
No capital gain = no profits. There are better ways to make money IMO. I;m sorry, it's just my MBA talking.

I think buying GM stock is the opposite of "play for today activity" of buy/sell in one day. There is such a thing as long term. Sure there are other ways to make money but GM will rebound. Hide and watch bro. One of the smartest men I've ever know was a "long term" guy - my Grandpa. He tought me a lot.

Hell if your MBA was worth so much you would invest in cocaine. Cut it up and sell it at a huge profit. There are so many MBAs out there now it's a commodity, not an asset. That is not as impressive as it used to be. It's a requirement. I know someone with that degree and he is an idiot. Not saying you are but I'm not impressed at all. Again, don't mean to be nasty but still

And to answer your question with another, what is your idea of a low price? De-listed and OTC?

No offense taken. I don't need to prove anything, just giving my opiniions to drivered.
I don't mean to stick my degree in your face or anything. I agree to think long term. It's part of a diversified portfolio plan. I'm a very conservative investor myself.
My point is that, in my humble opinion, GM hasn't reached bottom yet so I think it's premature to buy now even for the long term. It will take that much longer to recover your investment.
The trick is to know when to go for it. If the government starts getting serious about a bailout then that would be a good sign.

BTW, even someone with a "shake-and-bake" degree would say that cocaine is a bad investment :D

62 viewers and no one else has an opinion???:lildevil:

I hear you man. Of course with regard to when it gets close to buy because of Gov. bail out, they would first need to move much closer to bankruptcy. They deny this (the potential to file) but we will see. Cocaine is a great investment but you have to get others to do the dirty work! All kidding aside, dope isn't the way to go. For me stock is even too fickle. It is just one Q report away from being worthless.

62 viewers and no one else has an opinion???:lildevil:
I know. You'd think the title of the thread was catchy

There is no way the US Government is going to let GM sink.
Never say never. Been there, done that.

I haven't analysed this trade but I have been thinking of putting it on.

The thing about GM (aside from fundamentals....which are crap) are the options and convertible bonds related overhang. Options and CB traders have shorted the crap out of this thing and have bought/sold on 10-13% intervals. So when you see a bit of gain, they are forced to readjust their delta, hence forced to short again, pressuring the stock down. When it trades off, then they are forced to buy again to neautralize the delta risk. Effectivley pinning the stock (trades in range up and down). You/I gotta look at when their CB matures, and the greeks on it to see when this overhang eases off.

In the long run (if you want buy and hold) you gotta look at valuation (value investing) The thing with GM is they own alot of stuff, like real estate and facilities all over the US and world. You gotta somehow value that all up and compare that against all their debts and inventory etc, and see what the stock SHOULD cost (value). If this valued price is less (much less) than the current stock price, then it may be a good gamble. Folks like warren buffet look for 25% discount I think, to be safe.....

Let me know what you end up doing.

Just able to read replies, thanks. I am not sure, nor do I claim to know much about investing except the basics-buy low sell high. I have been trying to read any news related to GM and some of the analysts are still saying it is a poor investment (2 out of 10 on MSN). I would be looking long term, not to make a quick buck. I did check Ford and they give it an 8 of 10. What would you recomend? I am only thinking a couple of thousand at most. Thanks again.

Gotta take analyst opinions with a grain of salt.....the problem with buy low sell high is you never know where 'low' really is.

Can GM go lower...hell yes.

For example check out some of our bankrupt mogels in the airline industry and how their stock has performed over time and how analyst opinions made the right cal or not.

Never say never. Been there, done that.

You have a good point. I just see it (GM collapse) as too much of a problem for the US economy. Just think of the under funded Pension Guarantee Corp. (read tax payers) having to fund all those pensions, loss of jobs, taxes, etc. It really is a big deal. On top of that it could very well be a matter of national pride. It won’t look very good if one of the largest corporations in US history dies. But then again, there was a day when it seemed impossible that Pan Am would not exist and it no longer does.

Insider info - which is of course illegal to use in a stock transaction...
take it for what it's worth
The guy is who is in charge of restructuring GM plant operations for the next 10 years is Randy Tuttle, also an aquaintance of mine. He's telling everyone he knows to gobble up all the GM stock they can afford.
Here's why: In the next 20 years, the auto industry is going to become one giant pac man game. There's already more US-based manufacturing capacity than there is demand. By 2026, the number of car buyers will be slightly less than half what it is now. All the manufacturers -foreign and domestic - know the only way to survive is to aquire or be aquired. It really comes down to who has more liquid cash at crunch time.
So the math works like this: GM is bought by Toyota/Honda - stock price skyrockets. GM buys Nissan or Kia/Hyundai or all three - stock price skyrockets.

hmmmm.....maybe.

I wonder if we owns so much stock that he wants to stop the bleeding thereby tellin people it catch the falling knife :D

You have a good point. I just see it (GM collapse) as too much of a problem for the US economy. Just think of the under funded Pension Guarantee Corp. (read tax payers) having to fund all those pensions, loss of jobs, taxes, etc. It really is a big deal. On top of that it could very well be a matter of national pride. It won’t look very good if one of the largest corporations in US history dies. But then again, there was a day when it seemed impossible that Pan Am would not exist and it no longer does.
Yeah, that worries me too. PBGC now has my pension as well. Thanks UAL! Pan Am, Eastern and the list goes on. I hope you are right. I simply learned to never say never, the hard way.

I say save your cash. Cash is king. A pension is just a promise and promises were made to be broken. That is all a pension is at the end of the day. Bankruptcy would be a smart move for GM if you ask me. By doing so, they could shake all of these legacy cost. Tonight on News Hour they were showing a bunch of “laid off” workers hanging out in a bar. They all said they didn’t care either way because they are still getting paid because of the job bank. Well, I hope they have fun because the roof will fall in on them soon enough and there they will be. No real skills to speak of and dependent on the welfare GM system. It’s going to suck for them but all I will do is laugh.

Yup, they all think "It can't happen to me". You can only bleed the goose that lays the golden egg for so long. If you don't care for her, sooner or later she will stop laying.

These same people living it up on someone else's dime will be on TV next crying and asking how GM could do it!