: Our cars in 30 years....



Night Wolf
12-28-04, 03:18 PM
I was thinking the other day...

30 years ago... 1975... gasoline is pretty much the same as it is today... and before that, it was leaded.. but still gasoline... any car form 1975... and decades and decades before that... will still run on pump gas today... minus some lead substitue in some cases...

30 years form now... what will happen to us car guys? I am pretty sure there will be an alternate fuel sorce in the upcoming years... let along 30... 30 years from now cars may be running on another type of fuel... or electric...

none the less.... what are we going to do with old cars? (old being new cars today... and classics of today)... there probably wont be gas stations all over if gasoline is not widely used anymore... and gas prices would be about $8-$10/gallon....

Will this be the end to classic cars? will they just sit in a garage and hardly be driven? or will gasoline always be widely available (not that we run out of it.. which we will not... but that is isn't used anymore, therefore there is no demand for it) or will taking your favorite classic car for a sunny day cruise in 30years be something that'll cost $150?

What is everyone else' opinions?

yeah... I do think aobut these kind of things often... what can I say, I am bored often :).... also why I want to drive, and enjoy my cars as much as I can now... when things are still cheap :)

danbuc
12-28-04, 05:43 PM
I saw onb the Discovery Channel I think, some guy developed a way to turn regular garbage into petroleum that could be used for diesel or regulart gasoline. They already have a working machine that produces diesel, but they're planning on refining it into regular gasoline. The way the machine works, is kind of like an accelerated version of the natural process that usually takes millions of years. The batch they were making on the show, involved a bunch of old tires, so I think they can use just about anything. If that method works out in the future, than we should have nothing to worry about. That is unless we run out of garbage, which I doubt will ever happen.

majax
12-28-04, 08:52 PM
I will bet you at tank of gas(in 30 years) that in 30 years we will still be using fossil fuels namely gasoline for cars but... cars will be incredibly efficient.

Adam
12-28-04, 09:11 PM
i saw on discovery channel that they are working on making cars run on hydrogen. that is supposed to be finalized and ready for mass production by 2013, or something like that.

Vesicant
12-28-04, 09:12 PM
I will bet you at tank of gas(in 30 years) that in 30 years we will still be using fossil fuels namely gasoline for cars but... cars will be incredibly efficient.

Yep it wont just happen instantly, the world will take a long time to convert over to what ever fuel is best suited for the future.

Reguarding hydrogen as the alternate fuel, I personally think it would be way too complicated for an average person to have a car powered by it despite advances in design. You know people are going to try and mess around with it for "tuning purposes"


:suspense:

Adam
12-28-04, 09:19 PM
yeah but it is cleaner for the air and all that. i seen it on the show where they show all the concept cars in Detroit. it hasnt been perfected though but they said on the show it is being worked on. i think it would be a damn good idea economically as well as environmentally. as for me, i will still be ridin around in the big ole Fleety.

danbuc
12-29-04, 02:46 AM
The problem with hydrogen is, that although it is very clean and efficeint, it still has many drawbacks. For starters, it would take 10,000psi of hydrogen to power even the most efficeint car design we have now for just 300 miles. The process for extracting hydrogen is not very cost effective and in most cases, still relies on fossil fuels to provide the energy to collect and store it. Electrolysis uses large amount of energy, which is still being producein most cases by fossil fuel burning power plants. The other issue will be cost of cars and where will we fill them up. Hydrogen fuel cell technology is still very, very expensive to develope and produce, and there aren't very many hydrogen fueling stations around. It will still be easier to develope ways to either produce laboratory engineered, or natural hydrocarbons using new technologies. This would allow the continued use of current vehicles along with future cleaner and more efficient models. The cost to mass produce hydrogen technology is the main reason why it is not progressing as fast as it should. Auto makers do not want to spend the money to develope cars if there is nowhere to fuel them, and without the cars, there is no reason to build hydrogen fueling stations. The two rely on eachother to provide a reason for mass production. This is the problem with introducing such new technology. It will probably take a vast shortage of fossil fuels to push hydrogen car developement to the point where it would be a viable replacement for the gasoline engine. Until then, its just not cost effective.

Sorry for the long post.

Night Wolf
12-29-04, 03:07 AM
Well, the current big thing seems to be Hybrid cars... which... while I don't like the fact most of them are small cars with underpowered 4bangers... the idea of reusing the energy used... is real cool.... after all, when you lay on the brakes in a normal car, all that energy you used to move the car now just turns into heat enegy... but with the hybrid, that energy is used to charge batteries which then drive the car....

... I *do* see hybrid getting more popular... maybe not in commerical use, luxury car, work car, sports car etc.... but your average small - midsize commuter car I see it....

So there is a good possibility that gasoline will still be the #1 fuel sorce in 30+ years? that would be cool to know... plus there is enough gasoline in the world to last generations and generations....

Something that is interesting though... back when self-powered horseless carriages were first being designed in the late 1800's.... they chose gasoline... an early version of it.. but none the less... gasoline.... then with Henery Ford mass producing the Model T... gasoline powered... and all these years thru many, many changes... gasoline has stayed with us.... I like it too :)

I remember watching a video last year, that there is enough energy in 1 gallon of gasoline to run a big screen TV for a month stright..... wow....

Also, while the average gasoline internal combustion engine is only about 30% efficent..... they are some of the most reliable, economical and powerful options to power... say, a car.... interesting how some things never change....

danbuc
12-29-04, 03:17 AM
There is a Japanese company that is putting a hybrid delivery truck into production. They are marketing it to FedEx and Ups right now. They also have a Gasoline powered truck that still produces the same power as the hybrid. I think that the best use for a hybrid vehicle right now is probably for delivery trucks. They drive more than most average cars, and use alot of fuel. FedEx and UPS are really interested in this company for the money they will save on fuel. It's a really good idea, but there is still only a limited market for it. At this point, it is moslty commercial. These vehicle do not require speed, or high level of acceleration, so they would be perfect candidates for hybrid technology. I doubt we will ever see a hybrid caddy, but I gaurantee that within the next five years, most delivery companies (FedEx, UPS,...ect) will be using hybrid trucks for most of there fleet, especially in Europe.

Night Wolf
12-29-04, 03:20 AM
So I am basically saying...

that in 30 years... or the year 2035... I will be 47yrs old...

... I'll be able to take my '55 Coupe DeVille and '59 Eldorado convertible (which I will have by then) or my '79 DeVille, '93 DeVille.... and host of other classic cars... that I can just go to the local gas station and fill up... and despite the obvious increase in price, the cars will still run perfectly fine?

I don't make that much of a big deal about the cost of gasoline either... for the money you get alot in a gallon of gasoline... not to mention, that even though the cost goes up... it goes up with the cost of living/increase in pay... if you look at a chart that compares the price of gas to that period in time, then use an inflation calculator, you'll see that right now (with in the last sa... 10 years) is actually the cheapest gas prices have been...

... my father mentions that when he was a kid driving his GTO, gas was 60cents/gallon... $5 got alot of gas.... when I asked him how much he made (working for my grand father at their store... more then minium wage) he sais $1.50/hour... so an hour of work he could buy 2.5 gallons of gas.

Lets say that gas, for me is $2/gal.. when I started driving premium was about $1.78... but now premium is $2.27... so anyway.... gas is $2/gallon... but I don't make $1.50/hr... I make $9.07/hr. or in other words... in 1 hour of work I can buy 4.5 gallons of gas....... which is 2 full gallons of gas more then what my father was able to buy back in his younger days ....

.... hell, to be able to buy 2.5 gallons of gas today (like making $1.50 and gas being 60cents/gal) you would have to make $5/hr..... which is less then the minimum wage... so even then... if you are an 18 year old making minimum wage (that would be sad...) then you are basically getting gasoline for the same cost-to-income ratio as someone form back in the early 70's.....

Night Wolf
12-29-04, 03:23 AM
I dunno... if Caddy/GM keep jumping on the band wagon.. we may see a hybrid Caddy.... isn't Lexus making a hybrid car?

GM is making a semi-hybrid full size V8 Silverado... Ford has done it with the Escape (although a small SUV)....

I never thought of the delivery trucks... but now that I think of it... that would be a great idea.... for many reasons....

Vesicant
12-29-04, 10:54 AM
Dont forget that diesel and bio diesel are set to make a comeback as well.

We'll have a lot more clean diesels in the future or the next 30 years.

Stoneage_Caddy
12-29-04, 01:34 PM
i dunno , gasoline in 30 years will be expanesive as we cross the "peak production" in 20 years....in other words we will have used up half the worlds known supply .....but when this happens prices will jump up sharply till we bring alaska and texas back online to produce oil as it will finnaly be a viable solution ....

The classic car wont die ...but it will be an even more expensive hobby ......

I worry more about plastic ...as its made from oil .....if we use up all the oil we will end up back in the stoneage unless we recycle everything made form plastic and resuse it for everything from credit cards to computers and everything else....

Nuclear power needs to make a comeback ....id liek to see the powerplants get off useing oil ....they consume the most and they pollute the most out of our fossil fuel use ....

When CAFE relaxed in the mid 90s it pushed effiecnt car devlopment back at least 20 years .....I remeber by this point in years we should have been prying 35 mpg out of suburbans as the law was written.....

Instaed of spending millions and billions on effeicnt cars we spend millions and billion devoping the lastest sport utility that gets the same milage a 77 ford county squire got .....all we did was decrese the HCs and NOX from that time and make the county squire less stable in turns ....we have come a very short way ....Governemnt needs to take back controll from big oil and automakers by mandateing a stiff average fleet fuel economy divided up by specs for each vehicle segment .....the big three found that if they sold rebaged japanese cars they could bring the average fleet MPG up while still produceing gas hogs ....which got everyone nowhere when it comes to devlopment of the next gen of cars

majax
12-29-04, 02:19 PM
You are right about Nuclear power and many people are mistakened about it be very unsafe. It is not, if you treat it right it is safer than the bio testing lab we have here in my town. Also Nuclear power plants produce large amounts of hydrogen which could be used fro hydrogen cars.

I worry about plastics to, like I said though cars will be more effecient and GM is already selling hybrid busses and $100,000 mercedeses are Low Emissions Vehicles. The technology is there to make a Suburban get 35mpg.

airbalancer
12-29-04, 03:31 PM
... my father mentions that when he was a kid driving his GTO, gas was 60cents/gallon... $5 got alot of gas.... when I asked him how much he made (working for my grand father at their store... more then minium wage) he sais $1.50/hour... so an hour of work he could buy 2.5 gallons of gas.

Lets say that gas, for me is $2/gal.. when I started driving premium was about $1.78... but now premium is $2.27... so anyway.... gas is $2/gallon... but I don't make $1.50/hr... I make $9.07/hr. or in other words... in 1 hour of work I can buy 4.5 gallons of gas....... which is 2 full gallons of gas more then what my father was able to buy back in his younger days ....

.... hell, to be able to buy 2.5 gallons of gas today (like making $1.50 and gas being 60cents/gal) you would have to make $5/hr..... which is less then the minimum wage... so even then... if you are an 18 year old making minimum wage (that would be sad...) then you are basically getting gasoline for the same cost-to-income ratio as someone form back in the early 70's.....

Your dad was getting riped off. I was geting $4.50 at a summer job making cake mixes.27 years ago $10 /hour was a pretty good wage

dkozloski
12-29-04, 04:12 PM
The only thing that limits the availability of gasoline is the price we're willing to pay. When the price hits $60+/bbl. then we start processing Colorado oil shale and Alberta tar sands. Next comes oil from coal via the Fischer-Tropsch process used by Germany in WWII. There are billions and billions of barrels of available oil and petroleum that become recoverable if the price is right. I saw the other day that there is virtually a limitless supply of methane gas available both in super deep wells and stored as hydrates on the ocean bottom. This is easily converted to liquids. All it will take is money. We will do what the petroleum industry wants us to do. No on else has the leverage to get the job done.

Breakdancin11
01-01-05, 03:47 PM
I thought I heard that GM was making a couple of Hybrid cars and were going to start implimenting it in all their cars

-Jp