: Investors: Is there a bubble in the commodities markets????

01-21-11, 06:21 AM
Just seems like to me that this is where everybody has been investing in the past 2-3 years and driving up prices. I mean 4-5 years ago gas prices were 1/2 of what they were today. Does China and India really consume double the amount of fossil fuels they did 5 years ago?

I really feel that the whole commodities market is being priced high by pure speculation from guys fleeing from stocks. Am I wrong or right?

I have about $5,000 to invest in the next quarter and I see commodities crashing. Am I wrong or right? I really see select industries in China, India, and other 3rd world countries the right place to invest right now. Along with certain oil/natural gas companies. I am really hesitant to invest in American companies right now considering our economy is in the tank and from my point of view will be there for the next 5-15 years until we finally realize we shouldn't import EVERYTHING from China.

01-21-11, 10:49 AM
Go onto www.wsj.com, click on Markets and/or Commodities and Futures and start watching the commodities markets. You can expand, for example, oil into a graph several years long to get an idea of what happens due to different national/world shakeups.

Futures is risky business unless you're T. Boone Pickens or George Soros (who is setting himself up to be our country's first dictator).

01-22-11, 08:56 PM
Dollar cost averaging is the best investment strategy. Re-balance your portfolio & investment spread annually.

Commodities are risky. 'Timing' is dangerous, even for investment pros. 90% of futures fail. They are really just a way to hedge for increases in the cost of supplies.

If you hanker to gamble, buy gold or other precious metals. They are a good inflation hedge and that's the next economic failure to expect from current ignorant policies.

01-22-11, 09:43 PM
I would look into Chinese IPOs, in the previous year they've raised 50% more than American IPOs. China will own the world soon enough.

01-23-11, 02:24 PM
^^^ Like the flash in the pan that Japan presented in the 1980's (it appeared that Japan would take over the world due to its' extreme balance of payments and and extraordinary accumulation of dollars) China will also encounter growth problems from both its' inability to accommodate greater personal and political freedom within political system and its' ability to find successful venues for the investment of its' dollar surpluses. Many policies currently in the process of implementation in the PRC may well put a damper on the success of recent IPO's and make investment by those not privy to the insider trading that is so prevalent in China's stock markets.

Short term investment in IPO's of Chinese companies for non domestic Chinese players is strictly a matter of luck, with the cards stacked entirely against the foreign investor.