: GM Gonzo by New Years.



dkozloski
12-04-08, 04:01 PM
In the Senatorial hearings I've been watching, GM will be defunct by New Years. They won't be able to pay suppliers and they won't make payroll. Goodby dealers and warranties.

CIWS
12-04-08, 04:07 PM
Still say Uncle Sam won't let them completely fail, despite all the doom and gloom.

The Tony Show
12-04-08, 04:12 PM
Gentleman's bet, Koz?

dkozloski
12-04-08, 04:24 PM
I'm betting that congress won't give up the money without chapter 11 or something very close to it. Everybody from the CEOs to the UAW is in total denial. Nobody is willing to give up anything like what it'll take to make the industry work.

Jesda
12-04-08, 04:26 PM
On the plus side, the Crossfire can still be serviced at Mercedes dealers. Merger of 'equals' for the win?

Florian
12-04-08, 04:26 PM
I'm betting that congress won't give up the money without chapter 11 or something very close to it. Everybody from the CEOs to the UAW is in total denial. Nobody is willing to give up anything like what it'll take to make the industry work.

+1 Ch. 11 is the first step for their recovery....they need to bust the Union and reform their wage structure....


F

dkozloski
12-04-08, 04:34 PM
+1 Ch. 11 is the first step for their recovery....they need to bust the Union and reform their wage structure....


F
They already have a two-tier wage structure for new hires. What needs to go is the rediculous retirement pay, benefits, and the jobs bank.

RightTurn
12-04-08, 06:36 PM
Oh yeah, who needs a retirement pension? I'm sure Social Security will take care of us all. :rolleyes:

MauiV
12-04-08, 07:04 PM
Or they could do like the rest of working America and save and invest money for their retirement.

What a novel idea.

RightTurn
12-04-08, 07:09 PM
If you believe the rest of America is saving for retirement, you are mistaken. I just heard on the national news last night that fewer than 1.5% of Americans are saving for retirement. :gah: An eye-opening stat for sure.

MauiV
12-04-08, 07:18 PM
No sympathy for the stupid.

Make your bed, lie in it.

RightTurn
12-04-08, 07:18 PM
Agree.

hueterm
12-04-08, 08:53 PM
Good -- let them file. You know they've got an army of bean counters and lawyers working on this already. They just don't want to do it unless they absolutely have to. I bet they will though, I don't think they have the votes for the bailout.

RightTurn
12-04-08, 09:10 PM
I don't know what the best answer will be; I just know it makes me heartsick to imagine life without the Big 3. If Chrysler dies, who will I make fun of?? Oh ya. Ford. :lol:

Sandy
12-04-08, 09:39 PM
Listen Up.
Where were all of you when the US Government bailed out Wall Street to the tune of 700 BILLION dollars ? Hmmm? Where were all of you who want to see Chrysler, Ford & GM go bust, where were you when the Airlines took a bail out of billions of dollars from the feds to put them on their feet, again ?
I didn't hear anybody yelling "Let American Airlines go bust" Let United Airlines file Chapter 11 ~ Why Now ? Don't tell me that you all are under the spell of Toyopet?What Chrysler, Ford & G.M. want is FIVE PECENT of what ther Feds gave Wall Street, and just 16% of what they gave the Airlines !!!!!!!!

RightTurn
12-04-08, 09:46 PM
Where were we? Um, we were right here, bitching about that bailout, too. :alchi: Besides, I heard on the CBS evening news that the Big 3 is planning on asking for part of the 750 billion as well. CHA-CHING.

CIWS
12-04-08, 09:50 PM
Listen Up.
, where were you when the Airlines took a bail out of billions of dollars from the feds to put them on their feet, again ?


I think most of the country was still in shock from the 9/11 attacks and feeling a little more sympathetic to anything American, especially the airlines who had just been used as a tool of the attacks.

lawfive
12-04-08, 09:52 PM
We were also over on the Issues Forum talking a lot about the bailout of the investment houses, Sandy. This thread just happens to be here.

lawfive
12-04-08, 09:54 PM
What Chrysler, Ford & G.M. want is FIVE PECENT of what ther Feds gave Wall Street, and just 16% of what they gave the Airlines !!!!!!!!

And probably around 50% of what they need to make it for another three years.

dkozloski
12-05-08, 12:07 AM
No amount of bailout money will fix whats wrong with them if they don't restructure the basic business model. If they give them money now they'll be back for more in six months.

dkozloski
12-05-08, 12:19 AM
The Big Three were struggling when times were good. The idea of providing a defined benefits retirement program died years ago. There is no way to keep that kind of Ponzi scheme going as the industries become more efficient and the number of workers drops year by year. It has all the same problems as Social Security.

urbanski
12-05-08, 06:55 AM
Listen Up.
Where were all of you when the US Government bailed out Wall Street to the tune of 700 BILLION dollars ? Hmmm? Where were all of you who want to see Chrysler, Ford & GM go bust, where were you when the Airlines took a bail out of billions of dollars from the feds to put them on their feet, again ?
I didn't hear anybody yelling "Let American Airlines go bust" Let United Airlines file Chapter 11 ~ Why Now ? Don't tell me that you all are under the spell of Toyopet?What Chrysler, Ford & G.M. want is FIVE PECENT of what ther Feds gave Wall Street, and just 16% of what they gave the Airlines !!!!!!!!

we were in our current events forum discussing it....and you could join us by clicking here
http://www.cadillacforums.com/subscribe.html

Brett
12-05-08, 09:23 AM
No amount of bailout money will fix whats wrong with them if they don't restructure the basic business model. If they give them money now they'll be back for more in six months.

Bingo....Sandy, the difference between the airline loans and the automaker loans is that the airline loans worked and the automaker loans wont.

"G$"
12-05-08, 09:58 AM
first GM pensions get erased...

the next thing to go are govt. pensions, police pensions, fire dept. pensions...

Pensions are like dinosaurs...about to go extinct.

:stirpot:

dkozloski
12-05-08, 10:36 AM
first GM pensions get erased...

the next thing to go are govt. pensions, police pensions, fire dept. pensions...

Pensions are like dinosaurs...about to go extinct.

:stirpot:
Pensions don't go; defined benefits pensions which are simple Ponzi schemes go. Defined contribution pensions that are invested to provide retirement benefits are in, because they don't depend on an expanding workforce to continue to exist.

Ranger
12-05-08, 11:31 AM
+1 Ch. 11 is the first step for their recovery....they need to bust the Union and reform their wage structure....


Union busting is illegal. Renegotiating their contracts is not.


first GM pensions get erased...
They won't get "erased". They will get dumped on the PBGC (Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp). To date the UAL pension was by far the largest that the PBGC has ever taken over. GM will make that look like pocket change.

The Tony Show
12-05-08, 11:36 AM
Has anyone read their plan that I posted up here, or is it more fun to play "Monday Morning Executive" and pretend like any of you could run a multi-billion dollar global company?

"They're doomed to fail if they don't change their business model"

-Maybe that's why in their plan they've outlined how they're going to eliminate 4 of the 8 brands and focus their dollars on the 4 brands that make up 83% of their business.
-Maybe that's why they outlined how their wage and benefit structure is going to be competitive with Toyota by 2012.
-Maybe that's also why they were already moving forward with the same plan that drastically increased their solvency and projected profit in the next two years.

What most of you fail to realize (partly because the media doesn't report it) is that the majority of GM's losses in the last year have been voluntary ones to buy out bad contracts or healthcare costs. Most of what GM's plan to Congress entails was already in the works, but is now being accelerated due to the Government demanding to know what they plan to do.

Prior to the economic crisis (caused by Washington, NOT the car makers), GM was in a position to be a very profitable company by 2010. The current request for loans is not because Wagoner screwed up the company- it's because a Government caused economic crisis has cost the Auto industry 40% of its sales. Toyota and Honda have been hit just as hard, but the difference is that they weren't in the middle of spending billions on a costly restructuring plan when it happened.

Tossing out half assed accusations about how antiquated GM is makes you appear as dumb as the Congressman who made the comment about "GM making cars people don't want" (without realizing that they still sell more cars worldwide than Toyota). Download the complete plan HERE (http://www.media.gm.com/servlet/GatewayServlet?target=http://image.emerald.gm.com/newspublisher/support_file/12-02-2008/38/081202%20Congressional%20Submission%20Final2008120 2153829.doc), and check out pages 19, 20 and 21 for hard evidence that shows how much GM has reduced their structural cost, labor force, hours per vehicle in assembly, and a myriad of other things under Wagoner's watch.

Maybe if we examine some of the actual FACTS (instead of what the media feeds you), we can have some productive discussion about this without all the uninformed blathering.


*Edit*

I know my post reeks of frustration, but it's not directed at everyone in this thread. Some people are having an intelligent discussion, while some are just repeating the same tired, uninformed and idiotic criticisms of GM that are already in 20 threads here. If the shoe fits, wear it.

Brett
12-05-08, 11:42 AM
In GM's case there needs to be a meeting with:

-The Congressional Commitee from yesterday
-The GM Board
-The Union Leaders
-Dealership reps(assuming they have some sort of hierarchy)
-A Top Federal bankruptcy Judge

In this meeting they need to pre-negotiate a Chapter 11 reorganization, with concessions from all parties and loan guarantees from the government for reorganization...once congress agrees to the plan GM could literally file Chapter 11 on a Sunday night and be out of it Monday morning, this would resolve any stigma relating to buying a car from a bankrupt company since unless you bought one between Sunday at 5 and Monday at 9 you didnt....Yes things can happen that quick when the government wants them too.

Brett
12-05-08, 11:47 AM
-Maybe that's why in their plan they've outlined how they're going to eliminate 4 of the 8 brands and focus their dollars on the 4 brands that make up 83% of their business. .

Where did it say there are going to eliminate the other brands, all I saw was that they were focusing on the 4 core brands with no mention of what would actually become of the rest.

The Tony Show
12-05-08, 11:47 AM
Read between the lines. "Strategic review" and "explore other options" means :wave:

Brett
12-05-08, 11:52 AM
Read between the lines. "Strategic review" and "explore other options" means :wave:

but its not actually in the plan, if they want taxpayer money they should be more succinct.

I could just as easily say, read between the lines. "Strategic review" and "explore other options" means give me money and we may change our business model, but probably not because we are in the middle of a restructuring plan that we think was going to work even though it included keeping all of our brands.

Coma
12-05-08, 12:13 PM
Why can't the government just print more money for them? Simple really..

Bam! I just fixed the entire country from failure.

The Tony Show
12-05-08, 12:18 PM
but its not actually in the plan, if they want taxpayer money they should be more succinct.

I could just as easily say, read between the lines. "Strategic review" and "explore other options" means give me money and we may change our business model, but probably not because we are in the middle of a restructuring plan that we think was going to work even though it included keeping all of our brands.

It doesn't get much more succinct than this:



6.1 Marketing and Retail Operations—Today, General Motors competes in the United States with 8 brands. Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick, and GMC represent the company‘s core brands, accounting for 83% of current sales. The company will focus substantially all of its product development and marketing resources in support of these brands. This will result in improvements in awareness, sales, and customer satisfaction for these 4 core brands.

Brett
12-05-08, 12:27 PM
It doesn't get much more succinct than this:

This:


GM will seek to sell non core brands, if buyers are unable to be procured the non-core brands will be phased out over a period of their current model life cycles.

CIWS
12-05-08, 12:31 PM
I think I could do my part to help GM if Uncle Sam would pay off the upside down balance on my car note. Then I could go purchase a new CTS-V :D

Brett
12-05-08, 12:37 PM
I think I could do my part to help GM if Uncle Sam would pay off the upside down balance on my car note. Then I could go purchase a new CTS-V :D

GMAC use to be happy to do that, not a good business practice.

Po Pimp
12-05-08, 12:50 PM
I don't really see what the big deal is with them getting the money. The only one that is asking for money now is GM. The rest and GM are just asking for secured loans for the next year. Keep in mind GMs credit rating just dropped with the economic down turn. Of course so did Toyotas (closest competitor).

It was interesting to hear the guy from Johnson Controls talk in this meeting. Saying if these companies do go down "we will still be around" but probably around 2000 of our competitors will not.

I don't really think bankruptcy is an option. I don't think people will buy a car from a bankrupt car company. It is a little different when you go into a place like Circuit City (that is currently in bankruptcy) as they don't really off long term warranties. The warranties they do offer are generally covered by the manufacture not their company along with rebates you the customer are responsible for collecting.

If sales drop any lower dealers all over the country are going to go under very quickly. These dealers are already running near the red because of low sales and inability to secure credit for potential buyers. Now GM and others have been offering rebates/other things to drop the prices to sell the cars. These companies are not giving them their rebates back quickly which is just pushing the dealers closer to the red. Another 1000-2000 of these will go out of business.

It would be hard to do a reconstruction when the suppliers and dealers are dropping like flies. Hard to set a good reconstruction plan for the business in bankruptcy when their infrastructure is disappearing in the process. The government would then fully have to prop up these companies, honor the warranties of the cars and pay for the whole legal system process. Add on the huge rise in unemployment (probably close to a million), the cost of the legal/proping up the company/ process and the impact of letting them fail seems to have a bigger price tag then what is being asked over the next year.

I guess one problem I have in this whole process is Chrysler. Earlier in the year GM was looking into buying them. Mercedes just dumped them. Now they are owned by a private company that is unwilling to give them any funding. So I guess I am not sure why the government should even give them public loans. I like Chrysler but I think they should be not allowed in this process because of their business standing and the inability of the American people to profit from their profitability over the long run.

dkozloski
12-05-08, 01:14 PM
I think I could do my part to help GM if Uncle Sam would pay off the upside down balance on my car note. Then I could go purchase a new CTS-V :D
I have gap insurance. All I have to do is throw a match in the gas tank.

CIWS
12-05-08, 02:01 PM
I have gap insurance. All I have to do is throw a match in the gas tank.


I do as well. :) I'm just looking for an Uncle Sam handout like everyone else is these days.

urbanski
12-05-08, 02:27 PM
i wouldnt qualify for a handout. no debt, house worth more than morgage. oh well i suck.

CIWS
12-05-08, 02:29 PM
i wouldnt qualify for a handout. no debt, house worth more than morgage. oh well i suck.

Quit being a trend setter and get with the freakin program :D

MauiV
12-05-08, 07:16 PM
i wouldnt qualify for a handout. no debt, house worth more than morgage. oh well i suck.

You can have some of mine. Maybe the wifes med school tuition would be enough for you.


I wish during the financial bailout that Congress had required the institutions to drop interest rates on existing debt to say 3% to help out all the Americans that are actually paying for this.

dkozloski
12-05-08, 07:33 PM
You can have some of mine. Maybe the wifes med school tuition would be enough for you.


I wish during the financial bailout that Congress had required the institutions to drop interest rates on existing debt to say 3% to help out all the Americans that are actually paying for this.
The lender's plan is to raise interest rates on everybody that's current on their loan to pay for the deadbeats.

urbanski
12-05-08, 08:29 PM
those huge contracts people who have CCs get (and throw away) say they can raise rates anytime for any reason. agreeing to that astounds me but millions do