: Beware... Hurricane Fay and the Hebert Box...



Lord Cadillac
08-14-08, 04:26 AM
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0608W5+gif/024613W_sm.gif

Beware of storms rolling through the Hebert Box (http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm). At least 9 times out of 10, when a tropical storm passes through a Hebert Box (there are two), South Florida gets hit... Invest 92 is passing right through the middle of a Hebert Box as we speak...

"If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on any hurricane that passes through these boxes. Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major Hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes approx 335 miles x 335 miles includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms storms that developed & hit Dade,Broward & Palm Bch Counties."

edit: I updated the name to Hurricane Fay because this storm is gaining strength EXTREMELY fast..

http://www.hurricanecity.com/images/hebertbox.gif

ejguillot
08-14-08, 01:26 PM
I didn't know that. Interesting...

Lord Cadillac
08-14-08, 01:37 PM
This storm is building FAST! I expect Hurricane status within a day or so... The entire east coast, from Florida up, should be watching this storm...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floate r_1

Lord Cadillac
08-14-08, 06:10 PM
GFDL:
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/cyclone/maps/GFDI.png

Brizzal
08-14-08, 06:38 PM
yay hurricanes.......they piss me off....
but anyways yea Sal i never knew that. Great info!

Lord Cadillac
08-14-08, 06:59 PM
Consensus is tightening for a Southeast Florida impact. The better question may ask just how strong Fay will be.
http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200892_model.gif

Lord Cadillac
08-14-08, 07:10 PM
If Fay misses Hispaniola, it'll be a Major Hurricane - Category 3 or higher... Prepare for evacuations...

Vesicant
08-14-08, 08:22 PM
Looks like it could still hit awfully close to jacksonville here :suspense:

cooncat
08-14-08, 09:50 PM
I would keep an eye out for this storm, but I wouldn't worry about it for now. Let's just see how she forms and where she goes. So much could happen in the next few days. By the way Sal, tomorrow I am driving down to your neck of the woods tomorrow. I will be in Boynton Beach.

Brizzal
08-15-08, 12:26 AM
I would keep an eye out for this storm, but I wouldn't worry about it for now. Let's just see how she forms and where she goes. So much could happen in the next few days. By the way Sal, tomorrow I am driving down to your neck of the woods tomorrow. I will be in Boynton Beach.

thats one hell of a drive

cooncat
08-15-08, 08:51 AM
It's only 3 and half hours. It's not too bad. It is rather enjoyable with my car. My longest drive was the return trip in 2001 in 2001 Monte Carlo from northern Virginia to Savannah. I drove 600 miles in 10 hours. That was a long day.

Lord Cadillac
08-15-08, 01:45 PM
It just keeps looking worse and worse for Florida. However, the storm IS moving over lots of land - which will delay intensification. So if it does stay on track, it'll likely be less intense than predicted...
http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200892_model.gif

Brett
08-15-08, 01:52 PM
Hispaniola could tear it up pretty good. Will need to reform after that

Lord Cadillac
08-15-08, 06:53 PM
In an odd twist of fate, Fay continues to strengthen despite rolling onto land in the Dominican Republic. It's now considered a Tropical Storm (skipped past Tropical Depression from Invest 92).

Brizzal
08-17-08, 02:30 AM
its not looking good for tampa....

Lord Cadillac
08-17-08, 04:24 AM
its not looking good for tampa....
No it isn't!
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200806_model.gif

Brett
08-17-08, 05:02 PM
Looks like a Maximum Category 1, or even more likely to hit a s a TS, if thats the case it will be fine, localized flooding, no big deal

cooncat
08-17-08, 11:36 PM
It is still too soon to tell where this storm will hit. We won't know until it passes Cuba, even then we won't know until I think Tuesday. Where it hits, will determine how much effect it will have on us. We will have some rain and some wind from it though.

Perhaps I am in total denial about this storm and I am not taking this thing seriously.

ejguillot
08-18-08, 01:05 AM
I think we'll get a lot of rain, stiff wind, and that's it. Wonder if I'll get a day off work.

And besides, if houses and buildings were built PROPERLY in Florida, even a Cat 4 would be no big deal. The building codes, IMHO, are still fairly weak. And the inland county codes should be just as stiff as the coastal areas, 2004 proved why.

Lord Cadillac
08-18-08, 02:35 AM
Fay is moving almost straight up (north) right now.. It looks like this will NOT enter Florida from the West side - but right up the middle. All of South Florida needs to watch Fay - starting.... NOW.

ejguillot
08-18-08, 10:47 AM
Agreed - Fay's past Cuba, so you better be watching! Sucks for the SW FL crowd, but I prefer the current trajectory, as that way it can't get too strong.

cooncat
08-18-08, 12:07 PM
At the current time and this is according to the 11 report, it looks like it is going in south of Tampa and that would be good for us. Of course things could change. Right now the winds are at 60 with gusts up to 70.

Brett
08-18-08, 04:47 PM
I dont understand the big deal on this one. Unless you are right on the coast, this will be nothig more than a large rain storm. Since Hurricanes seldom are accompanied by lightning this will not nearly be as freaky as some of the thunderstorms we get on a daily basis around here.

Lord Cadillac
08-19-08, 05:26 AM
Fay is very strong here in West Palm Beach - and she's not even close to us yet... This was from 10:00am on Monday...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbP3TKvK1-k

Brett
08-19-08, 12:06 PM
Are you still alive? :) Sun peeking through here right now....no rain yet, doesnt look like we will get any

ejguillot
08-19-08, 01:02 PM
It's a normal overcast day here in Tampa! :)

The Tony Show
08-19-08, 01:38 PM
The Hurricanes are coming!! OMG!!!

:run: :run::run: :run: :run: :run: :run: :run:

Oh wait- it's just some rain and wind. :suspect:

Brett
08-19-08, 02:36 PM
They said this morning on Bay News 9 that "we really dodged a bullet" When will the sensationalism stop? It was not even a hurricane. Speaking for myself ill take a Tropical storm over a bullet.

Brett
08-19-08, 06:37 PM
I see there was a tornado in wellington, I believe Sal lives around there, hopefully he didnt get flung to the land of oz

Brizzal
08-19-08, 10:43 PM
yea i heard about it too, good thing sal moved out of wellington!

Brett
08-19-08, 11:25 PM
Thats good, I couldnt remember if he moved out of there or moved to there

Brett
08-20-08, 03:14 PM
man this thing is really sticking around, SLOW mover.

Brett
08-20-08, 08:58 PM
Rain in Melbourne is at 25 inches, thats crazy. Normally these things move on quick, this one is just lashing the east coast over and over. Reminds me of Frances, though not nearly as large.

Brizzal
08-20-08, 09:27 PM
yea i remember frances.... i felt like my house had a moat around it....

cooncat
08-20-08, 09:52 PM
The weather guys here in Tampa were saying that sometimes these tropical storms are very slow movers and can do major damage with the copious amount of rain they can drop.

Meanwhile, here on the west coast in the Tampa Bay area, all we got was a little bit of rain and wind.

Lord Cadillac
08-21-08, 07:35 PM
Thats good, I couldnt remember if he moved out of there or moved to there

I moved into Wellington, my wife didn't like the house, so we moved back to West Palm Beach into my 1x1 condo.

I freakin' loved the house...
http://picasaweb.google.com/claziano/MyHomeInWellington

Yes, Wellington had a LOT of damage.. People are out of their homes.. Anyone who thought this storm was nothing should see what they have to say about it... 100,000 people in Palm Beach County alone lost power. It wasn't a very strong storm but it did do some damage...

Brett
08-21-08, 10:01 PM
the rain totals in some places are amazing.....what type of damage in the wellington area? the tornadoes looked pretty localized to a couple buildings

Vesicant
08-21-08, 10:42 PM
We've so far lost power a couple times, had a branch fall and scrape my window (no damage) - a lot of rain. lots of rain. JEA here says roughly 76000 people without power.

Slow moving storms are definitely not good.

Boombotz
08-21-08, 11:46 PM
I moved into Wellington, my wife didn't like the house, so we moved back to West Palm Beach into my 1x1 condo.

I freakin' loved the house...
Well we know who wears the pants in the family.:D

Lord Cadillac
08-22-08, 03:22 PM
Well we know who wears the pants in the family.:D
Eh. I wouldn't make her stay somewhere she was uncomfortable.. I'd rather be the uncomfortable one...

Brizzal
08-22-08, 11:56 PM
well look at the size of the house! lol, it was a bit big for 2 people but freakin nice!